特种油气藏 ›› 2022, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 119-126.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-6535.2022.06.015

• 油藏工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

非常规气井产量递减与EUR预测方法评述

崔英敏1, 郭红霞2, 陆建峰2, 杨勇2, 张金柏2, 刘伟2, 靳广兴2, 赵开良2   

  1. 1.长庆实业集团有限公司,陕西 西安 710018;
    2.西安锦江能源科技有限公司,陕西 西安 710018
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-21 修回日期:2022-07-27 出版日期:2022-12-25 发布日期:2023-01-10
  • 作者简介:崔英敏(1973—),女,工程师,1994年毕业于长庆石油学校地质勘查专业,2008年毕业于中国石油大学(华东)石油工程专业,获硕士学位,现主要从事油田开发工作。
  • 基金资助:
    国家“十三五”重大科技攻关项目“页岩气开发规模预测及开发模式研究”(2016ZX05037-006)

A Review of Unconventional Gas Well Production Decline and EUR Prediction Methods

Cui Yingmin1, Guo Hongxia2, Lu Jianfeng2, Yang Yong2, Zhang Jinbai2, Liu Wei2, Jin Guangxing2, Zhao Kailiang2   

  1. 1. Changqing Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018;
    2. Xi'an Jinjiang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018
  • Received:2021-12-21 Revised:2022-07-27 Online:2022-12-25 Published:2023-01-10

摘要: 针对非常规气井产量递减与EUR(预测最终采收率)结果差别大、准确率不高的问题,对Wattenbarger线性流法、PLE幂指数递减模型法、SEPD扩展指数递减模型法等各种方法的理论基础和优缺点进行对比分析,评价各种方法的使用对象、所需数据和适用条件。同时,通过对PLE、SEPD、Duong、LGM 4种模型在线性流阶段和拟边界流阶段的预测结果与数值模拟井的预测结果进行对比,并进行实际应用。结果表明:各种常用的非常规气井产量递减方法均适用于不同的地层流态;Wattenbarger线性流、拟恒定流动压力、水平井多级压裂模型3种方法更适用于变产量、变井底流压的流动状况;PLE和Duong模型在生产时间为2 a内预测比较准确。该研究为非常规气井产量预测提供了借鉴。

关键词: 非常规气井, 产量递减, EUR预测方法, 页岩气

Abstract: In view of the problems of production decline of unconventional gas wells, large differences and low accuracy in the EUR (predicted ultimate recovery factor) results, the theoretical basis and advantages and disadvantages of the various methods such as Wattenbarger linear flow method, PLE power exponential decline model method, and SEPD extended exponential decline model method were compared and analyzed to evaluate the objects of use, required data and applicable conditions of various methods. At the same time, the prediction results of the four models of PLE, SEPD, Duong and LGM in the linear flow stage and the quasi-boundary flow stage were compared with the prediction results of the numerical simulation well, and practical applications were carried out. The research result shows: Various commonly used production decline methods for unconventional gas wells are suitable for different formation flow regimes; Wattenbarger linear flow, quasi-constant flow pressure, and horizontal well multi-stage fracturing model are more suitable for flow conditions with variable production and variable bottom-hole pressure. PLE and Duong models are more accurate for prediction within 2a. This study provides a reference for production prediction of unconventional gas wells.

Key words: unconventional gas well, production decline, EUR prediction method, shale gas

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