针对非常规气井产量递减与EUR(预测最终采收率)结果差别大、准确率不高的问题,对Wattenbarger线性流法、PLE幂指数递减模型法、SEPD扩展指数递减模型法等各种方法的理论基础和优缺点进行对比分析,评价各种方法的使用对象、所需数据和适用条件。同时,通过对PLE、SEPD、Duong、LGM 4种模型在线性流阶段和拟边界流阶段的预测结果与数值模拟井的预测结果进行对比,并进行实际应用。结果表明:各种常用的非常规气井产量递减方法均适用于不同的地层流态;Wattenbarger线性流、拟恒定流动压力、水平井多级压裂模型3种方法更适用于变产量、变井底流压的流动状况;PLE和Duong模型在生产时间为2 a内预测比较准确。该研究为非常规气井产量预测提供了借鉴。
In view of the problems of production decline of unconventional gas wells, large differences and low accuracy in the EUR (predicted ultimate recovery factor) results, the theoretical basis and advantages and disadvantages of the various methods such as Wattenbarger linear flow method, PLE power exponential decline model method, and SEPD extended exponential decline model method were compared and analyzed to evaluate the objects of use, required data and applicable conditions of various methods. At the same time, the prediction results of the four models of PLE, SEPD, Duong and LGM in the linear flow stage and the quasi-boundary flow stage were compared with the prediction results of the numerical simulation well, and practical applications were carried out. The research result shows: Various commonly used production decline methods for unconventional gas wells are suitable for different formation flow regimes; Wattenbarger linear flow, quasi-constant flow pressure, and horizontal well multi-stage fracturing model are more suitable for flow conditions with variable production and variable bottom-hole pressure. PLE and Duong models are more accurate for prediction within 2a. This study provides a reference for production prediction of unconventional gas wells.
[1] 陈璐,胡志明,熊伟,等.页岩气扩散实验与数学模型[J].天然气地球科学,2020,31(9):1285-1293.
CHEN Lu,HU Zhiming,XIONG Wei,et al.Diffusion experiment of shale gas and mathematical model[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2020,31(9):1285-1293.
[2] 黄文俊,刘德华,孙敬,等.微纳米孔隙中页岩气流动与扩散规律[J].科学技术与工程,2020,20(14):5583-5588.
HUANG Wenjun,LIU Dehua,SUN Jing,et al.Shale gas seepage and diffusion law in micro-nano pore[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(14):5583-5588.
[3] 王程伟,李蕾,苏玉亮,等.页岩气低速渗流特征分析及影响因素研究[J].特种油气藏,2020,27(1):136-141.
WANG Chengwei,LI Lei,SU Yuliang,et al.Low-velocity shale gas seepage analysis and influencing factors[J].Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs,2020,27(1):136-141.
[4] 郭建林,贾爱林,贾成业,等.页岩气水平井生产规律[J].天然气工业,2019,39(10):53-58.
GUO Jianlin,JIA Ailin,JIA Chengye,et al.Production laws of shale-gas horizontal wells[J].Natural Gas Industry,2019,39(10):53-58.
[5] 谢维扬,刘旭宁,吴建发,等.页岩气水平井组产量递减特征及动态监测[J].天然气地球科学,2019,30(2):257-265.
XIE Weiyang,LIU Xuning,WU Jianfa,et al.Production decline characteristic and dynamic monitoring of horizontal well group in shale gas reservoirs[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2019,30(2):257-265.
[6] 商绍芬,严鸿,吴建,等.四川盆地长宁页岩气井生产特征及开采方式[J].天然气勘探与开发,2018,41(4):69-75.
SHANG Shaofen,YAN Hong,WU Jian,et al.Production characteristics and development modes of shale-gas wells,Changning Gasfield,Sichuan Basin[J].Natural Gas Exploration and Development,2018,41(4):69-75.
[7] IBRAHIM M,WATTENBARGER R A.Analysis of rate dependence in transient linear flow in tight gas wells[C].SPE100836-MS,2005:1-13.
[8] IBRAHIM M,WATTENBARGER R A.Rate dependence of transient linear flow in tight gas wells[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,2006,45(10):18-20.
[9] ILK D,CURRIE S M,SYMMONS D,et al.Hybrid rate-decline models for the analysis of production performance in unconventional reservoirs[C].SPE135616-MS,2010:1-39.
[10] VALKÓ P P,LEE W J.A better way to forecast production from unconventional gas wells[C].SPE134231-MS,2010:1-16.
[11] DUONG A N.An unconventional rate decline approach for tight and fracture-dominated gas wells[C].SPE137748-MS,2010:1-16.
[12] CLARK A J,LAKE L W,PATZEK T W.Production forecasting with logistic growth models[C].SPE144790-MS,2011:1-11.
[13] CURRIE S M,ILK D,BLASINGAME T A,et al.Application of the continuous estimation of ultimate recovery methodology to estimate reserves in unconventional reservoirs[C].SPE138155-MS,2010:1-10.
[14] XIE X Y,FAIRBANKS M D,FOX K S,et al.A new method for earlier and more accurate eur prediction of haynesville shale gas wells[C].SPE159273-MS,2013:1-11.
[15] AL-AHMADI H A,ALMARZOOQ A M,WATTENBARGER R A.Application of linear flow analysis to shale gas wells-field cases[C].SPE130370-MS,2010:1-11.
[16] BROWN M,OZKAN E,RAGHAVAN R,et al.Practical solutions for pressure-transient responses of fractured horizontal wells in unconventional shale reservoirs[J].SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering,2011,14(6):663-676.
[17] WU Y H,CHENG L S,HUANG S J,et al.A semi-analytical method of production prediction for shale gas wells considering multi-nonlinearity of flow mechanisms[J].Scientia Sinica Technologica,2018,48(6):691-700.
[18] BROHI I,POOLADI-DARVISH M,AGUILERA R.Modeling fractured horizontal wells as dual porosity composite reservoirs-application to tight gas,shale gas and tight oil cases[C].SPE144057-MS,2011:1-22.
[19] LEE J.Establishing the basis for multi-segment arps decline models[C].URTEC5393,2021:1-18.
辽公网安备 21110002000031号 辽ICP备18011648号-1
