底水油藏开发过程中的底水锥进脊进问题严重制约了油藏的高效开发。针对该问题,以底水油藏鱼骨分支井为研究对象,运用渗流力学和油藏工程等理论方法,建立底水油藏底水锥进脊进动态预测模型,对见水时间及见水位置沿井筒轨迹的分布规律进行研究,明确鱼骨分支井的见水动态特征并对其进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明:受主井筒与分支井筒间的渗流干扰及分流作用影响,井筒汇合处附近的夹角区域内流率较低,在油层中垂向压力梯度较大,见水时间较早,随后主井筒的中间段以及靠近主井筒的各分支井筒跟端位置见水,主井筒的两端和各分支井的趾端位置见水时间相对较晩;增加避水高度、油水密度差、主井筒长度及分支夹角可有效减缓底水锥进脊进,主井筒长度超过400 m、分支角度超过30°时,见水时间增加幅度变缓;井筒高度位于油层厚度80%处较合理;重油油藏比轻质油藏更容易引起底水的脊进。研究成果对于油田矿场确定合理工作制度,延缓见水时间及提高无水累计产量和采收率具有重要实践指导意义。
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