碳酸盐岩底水气藏见水前水侵预测方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6535.2025.03.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 碳酸盐岩底水气藏气井见水前的水侵预测方法及水体活跃性评价方法存在适用性较差的问题,为此,分析了碳酸盐岩底水气藏的储层特征和水侵特征,建立了碳酸盐岩底水气藏底水锥进的数学模型,推导了碳酸盐岩底水气藏见水时间、水锥高度的计算公式,描述了不同时刻的水锥形态,预测了气井见水前的水侵量与水驱指数。将研究成果应用于川中蓬莱气田灯二气藏PT102井,结果表明:该方法结合了理论推导与实际应用,实现了对气井见水前水侵过程的动态描述和定量预测,解决了气井早期水侵量预测的难题,弥补了传统方法精确度和适用性不足的问题。通过该方法预测见水时间为169 d,与实测值177 d的绝对误差仅8 d(相对误差为4.5%),见水前水侵量达2.52×10⁴ m³,水驱指数稳定在0.30,验证了模型的可靠性;合理降低气井配产可有效延缓底水气藏气井见水时间,显著抑制水侵程度。当气井产量下调25%时,见水时间可延后约24%,累计水侵量减少18.4%,同时水驱指数由0.30降至0.27,水体活跃性得到明显抑制。研究成果弥补了碳酸盐岩底水气藏见水前早期水侵预测方法的不足,同时为同类气藏的优化配产提供了借鉴。

关键词: 底水气藏, 锥进, 碳酸盐岩, 水侵预测, 水体活跃性, 早期水侵, 蓬莱气田

Abstract: To address the poor applicability of existing methods for predicting water invasion and evaluating aquifer activity in carbonate gas reservoirs with bottom water before water breakthrough,the reservoir characteristics and water invasion behaviors of such reservoirs were systematically analyzed.A mathematical model for bottom-water coning in carbonate gas reservoirs with bottom water was developed,incorporating derived formulas for calculating breakthrough time and water cone height.The morphological evolution of water cones at different production stages was characterized,enabling prediction of water invasion volume and water drive index before gas well breakthrough.The research results are applied to the Well PT102 in the Deng-2 gas reservoir of the Penglai Gasfield in central Sichuan, indicating that this method combines theoretical derivation with practical application,achieving dynamic description and quantitative prediction of water invasion before gas well water breakthrough,and solves the problem of early water invasion prediction in gas wells,addressing the insufficient accuracy and applicability of traditional methods.The predicted water breakthrough time is 169 days,with an absolute error of only 8 days (relative error 4.5%) compared to the measured value of 177 days.The water invasion volume before water breakthrough reaches 2.52×10⁴ m³,and the water drive index stabilizes at 0.30,verifying the model′s reliability.Reasonably reducing gas well production can effectively delay the water breakthrough time and significantly suppress the degree of water invasion.When the gas well production is reduced by 25%,the water breakthrough time can be delayed by about 24%,the cumulative water invasion volume is reduced by 18.4%,and the water drive index decreases from 0.30 to 0.27,indicating a significant suppression of water body activity.The research results fill the gap in early water invasion prediction methods for carbonate gas reservoirs with bottom water before water breakthrough and provide a reference for optimizing production allocation in similar gas reservoirs.

Key words: gas reservoirs with bottom water, coning, carbonate, water invasion prediction, water body activity, early water invasion, Penglai Gasfield

中图分类号:

TE349

庞进, 霍俞辰, 许深浩, 陈林, 欧加强, 杨洋, 孔祥玲. 碳酸盐岩底水气藏见水前水侵预测方法[J]. 特种油气藏, 2025, 32(3): 86-93.

PANG Jin, HUO Yuchen, XU Shenhao, CHEN Lin, OU Jiaqiang, YANG Yang, KONG Xiangling. Prediction method for water invasion in carbonate gas reservoir with bottom water before water breakthrough[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2025, 32(3): 86-93.

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